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UPBOUND GROUP, INC. (UPBD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue was $1.079B (+6.0% y/y), GAAP diluted EPS $0.55 versus $(0.21) in Q4 2023, and non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.05 (+$0.24 y/y); Adjusted EBITDA rose 14.1% to $122.8M while consolidated lease charge-off rate improved 20 bps to 7.3% .
- Segment performance was mixed: Acima GMV +15.3% y/y with revenue +14.4% and LCO down to 9.0%; Rent-A-Center revenue declined 3.3% y/y but Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 17.0% amid lower operating expenses .
- FY 2025 guidance initiated: revenue $4.50–$4.75B, non-GAAP EPS $3.90–$4.40, Adjusted EBITDA (ex-SBC) $500–$540M, FCF $150–$200M; Q1 2025 non-GAAP EPS guided to $0.90–$1.00 .
- Potential stock catalysts: CEO succession (CFO Fahmi Karam to become CEO on June 1, 2025), dividend raised 5%+ to $0.39/qtr, and Brigit acquisition closed Jan 31, 2025 to accelerate digital financial health cross-sell and underwriting enhancements .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Acima delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit GMV growth (+15.3% y/y), with revenue +14.4% y/y and LCO improving to 9.0%; management highlighted expanding merchant roster and higher DTC marketplace contribution .
- Rent-A-Center Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 17.0% (14.5% prior year) on lower operating expenses; GAAP operating profit reached $69.7M (15.7% margin) despite revenue headwinds .
- Consolidated operating discipline: GAAP operating expenses fell to 39.8% of revenue (from 44.9%), driving operating margin expansion (7.3% vs 5.5%) and non-GAAP EPS to $1.05; CEO: “Acima’s momentum continued…largest-ever adjusted EBITDA” .
What Went Wrong
- Rent-A-Center revenue declined 3.3% y/y; LCO increased 80 bps to 5.0% and store count fell to 1,728 after franchising and consolidation actions, pressuring top line despite margin gains .
- Acima gross margin contracted 260 bps y/y due to a higher merchandise sales mix (more 90-day purchase option elections) and the ANOW-to-Acima platform conversion impact .
- Q4 cash flow: net cash from operations (-$61.9M) and FCF (-$74.0M) were negative as growth funding and working capital needs weighed versus Q3’s positive FCF .
Financial Results
Consolidated vs Prior Periods and Estimates
Note: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global for Q4 2024 was not available via our data connection at time of analysis. We attempted retrieval but could not obtain the figures. As such, we cannot state beat/miss versus consensus for Q4 2024.
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Non-GAAP EPS excludes “special items” such as Acima acquired assets amortization/depreciation, legal matters, transaction fees, accelerated stock comp, and discrete tax items per reconciliations .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (Mitch Fadel): “Acima’s momentum continued…delivered over 17% growth this year on both GMV and revenue, while generating its largest-ever adjusted EBITDA…we welcomed Brigit…” .
- CFO (Fahmi Karam): “Upbound delivered strong results in Q4…we met or exceeded annual guidance…In 2025, we expect stronger cash flow…ongoing commitment to reducing our debt” .
- On 2025 priorities: focus on merchants, customers, and margins (Acima); underwriting discipline; digital evolution and omni-channel efficiency (RAC); cross-marketing and cash-flow underwriting synergies (Brigit) .
Q&A Highlights
- Consumer/Underwriting: Core customer remains under pressure; conservative posture; Acima benefits from trade-down while RAC does not see direct waterfall effect .
- Acima margin drivers: Expect margin improvement via lower losses and operating leverage; near-term gross profit impacted by early purchase mix; sequential margin uptick already evident .
- Merchant pipeline: Active and robust, with recent wins among top-50 furniture retailers; integration speed and service drive share gains .
- External dynamics: Furniture retailer bankruptcies created Q4 liquidation headwind but potential 2025 upside for RAC and Acima .
- Tax season: Early indications of higher refunds vs prior year support consumer demand; management constructive .
- Legal: No material update; management confident in position; notes competitor’s similar case largely dismissed .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was not retrievable at the time of analysis; therefore we cannot state beat/miss versus Street for Q4 2024. Management did not cite specific consensus comparisons on the Q4 call –.
- Given new FY 2025 guidance, Street estimates may need to adjust higher for revenue and EPS if Acima margin improvements and Brigit contributions materialize as guided .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Acima is the growth engine: double-digit GMV and revenue growth with improving loss rates and a clear path to margin normalization; leverage merchant adds, DTC marketplace, and underwriting discipline .
- RAC resilience: despite revenue pressure, margin execution was strong; footprint optimization largely complete, with digital conversion supporting mid-teens margins in 2025 even as expenses normalize .
- FY 2025 setup: Initiated guidance points to top-line growth, EPS expansion, and stronger FCF; delivery hinges on Acima margin recovery and Brigit integration/cross-sell .
- Capital allocation: dividend raised to $0.39; deleveraging remains a priority with target net leverage ≤2x over time supported by improved FCF .
- Regulatory risk monitored but quantified via special items; no new adverse developments disclosed in Q4; watch for resolution trajectory in 2025 .
- Near-term trading: Positive momentum likely tied to Acima margin trajectory and validation of Q1 guidance ($0.90–$1.00 EPS); CEO transition adds governance spotlight but continuity assured .
- Medium-term thesis: Digital-first platform across Acima/Brigit/RAC.com expands TAM and relevance; cross-sell and underwriting data advantages can compound growth and margin over 2025–2026 .